NOBARTV NEWS – Washington, D.C. — Allan Lichtman, a leading presidential historian and political pundit, has revealed his predictions regarding the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election. Lichtman, who is known for his ability to predict election results, has correctly predicted the winner of the presidential election nine times in the past, with the only failure coming in 2000. In an interview with NDTV, Lichtman expressed confidence that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris will emerge victorious.
“Harris will be the first female president of the United States and the first president of mixed African and Asian descent,” Lichtman said. In his view, the upcoming election will be heavily influenced by a number of factors that he called 13 key points.
These points include party mandates, electoral contestation, incumbent status, third-party presence, and economic conditions in both the short and long term. In addition, Lichtman also considers policy changes, social unrest, and potential scandals that may arise. Success or failure in foreign and military policy, as well as the appeal (charisma) of both incumbents and challengers, are also important parts of his analysis.
Lichtman emphasized that in his analysis, he ignored the often unreliable results of polls. According to him, surveys can create the illusion of confidence, and many voters are dishonest or change their minds as the election approaches. "I believe Harris will win because the current polls are very close. My system does ignore polls because of their questionable reliability," Lichtman explained.
Despite his strong convictions, Lichtman also acknowledges that his predictions could be wrong. He warns that if his predictions are wrong, it could signal serious danger to democracy in the United States. “If I am wrong, then our democracy is in danger. Democracy is precious, but it can be destroyed, and often from within. I am concerned about the trend of democratic decline that is being seen around the world,” he says.
The 2024 US presidential election is scheduled to take place on November 5 This, with Kamala Harris facing off against Donald Trump, the former Republican president. Recent polls show a tight race between the two, especially in battleground states.
Currently, Donald Trump appears to be ahead in several states, although the final results are still hard to predict. With a more focused approach to his base and an intensive campaign strategy, Trump is trying to maintain his position.
Lichtman, with his extensive experience in analyzing American politics, provides valuable insights into what to expect from the upcoming election. With this crucial moment, voters are expected to actively participate in determining the political future of their country.
